Publications
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Openness and Fragmentation in EU Defence Procurement
Research Areas: EU Single Market, Institutions, and Governance Industrial and Competitiveness Policy Trade, Globalisation and SecurityEurope’s fragmented defence procurement markets undermine Europe’s security efforts. Larger procurement markets, by contrast, deliver sharper...
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Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland
Research Areas: Trade, Globalisation and SecurityTags: trade policyBy: Lucian CernatGlobal trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and...
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Seeing the Forest and the Trees: Recent Developments in the US Tariff Landscape
By: Lucian CernatThis short factual overview paper describes the complexity created by the tariffs imposed by the US, especially for small and medium enterprises...
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The Participation of Foreign Bidders in EU Public Procurement: Too Much or Too Little?
Research Areas: EU Single Market, Institutions, and Governance Industrial and Competitiveness Policy Trade, Globalisation and SecurityBy: Lucian CernatThis policy brief examines EU public procurement data from the Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) to evaluate foreign bidders’ participation and...
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Trade, Jobs and Technological Change: What to Expect in the Next Five Years?
By: Lucian CernatThis Policy Brief explores the intertwined effects of trade and technological change (notably robotics and AI) on employment, highlighting a growing...
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What Mode of Supply Will Matter the Most for the Future of Services Trade?
Research Areas: Trade, Globalisation and SecurityTags: trade in servicesBy: Lucian CernatThis Policy Brief looks at the latest trends in services trade and tries to show their importance, in its various manifestations, for virtually all...
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The External Side of Europe’s Great Economic Transformation: International Trade in Services
Europe’s digital transition is starting to bear fruits. Europe’s economic landscape is becoming increasingly digital, with sectors like...
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On the Importance of Placebo and Nocebo Effects in International Trade
By: Lucian CernatTrade agreements are powerful drivers of global economic integration, leading to increased trade flows between countries. Usually, trade agreements...
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The Gini Trade Index: What Can We Learn from A New Trade Indicator?
By: Lucian CernatThis Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of capturing the different...
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The Art of the Mini-Deals: The Invisible Part of EU Trade Policy
By: Lucian CernatTrade policy is usually defined by the kinds of deals it can strike. Typically, the attention is focussed either on big multilateral trade rounds or...
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Trade and Competitiveness: Putting the Firm at the Centre of the Analysis
Research Areas: EU Single Market, Institutions, and Governance Industrial and Competitiveness Policy Trade, Globalisation and SecurityThe European Commission published its communication for the long-term competitiveness of the EU. Trade and Open Strategic Autonomy were among the...
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How Important are Mutual Recognition Agreements for Trade Facilitation?
By: Lucian CernatTrade in the 21st century may face lower tariffs, but regulations that affect international trade in goods and services have proliferated. While...